Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

Rudolph, L. and S. Gomm (2024): „How Does an Economic Shock Affect Environmental Attitudes, Preferences and Issue Importance? Evidence from Switzerland.“ Accepted for publication at Climatic Change.
[Link to Manuscript] [Pre-registration] Abstract

How do economic shocks affect public pressure for pro-environmental political action? Theoretically, we argue to look beyond changes in environmental attitudes, and trace whether citizens’ policy preferences and the importance attached to environment-related issues change when their economic situation deteriorates. Empirically, we draw on population-representative panel data for Switzerland, combining survey measures for quasi-random Corona-related income losses, environmental attitudes and policy preferences, and an experimental assessment of issue importance. We neither find a decline of environmental policy support among economically affected individuals compared to the rest of the population, nor lower importance given to environmental relative to economic issues in voting decisions. This suggests that politicians need not fear electoral losses when pursuing environmental policies in times of economic crisis.

Leininger, A. and L. Rudolph (2024): „Can Individual MPs Damage their Party’s Brand? Quasi-experimental Evidence from a Public Procurement Corruption Scandal“. Conditionally accepted at The Journal of Politics.
[Link to Manuscript] [Pre-Registration] Abstract

Are parties punished electorally by voters for scandals of individual politicians among their ranks? To answer this question, we analyze the electoral repercussions of a political scandal in March 2021 in Germany: Several national MPs of the then governing party, CDU/CSU, became publicly suspected to have been implicated in corrupt behavior. Leveraging the fact that the scandal surfaced shortly before state elections in two German states, we can show that the scandal damaged the whole CDU/CSU party brand, even though these elections were held at a di erent level of government and one state had no implicated MP. We estimate the effect of the scandal, a loss of 4% -points to the party, through a difference-in-differences design- by differentiating trends in pre-scandal postal and post-scandal urnvoting. We test and discuss enabling conditions that lead to electoral repercussions of individual politicians‘ wrongdoing for their party overall.

Rudolph, L., M. Freitag, and P.W. Thurner (2023): “Ordering Effects Vs. Cognitive Burden – How Should We Structure Attributes in Conjoint Experiments”. Conditionally accepted at Public Opinion Quarterly.
[Link to Manuscript] [Pre-Registration] Abstract

Conjoint experiments have become very popular in recent years in political science and related disciplines. They offer a flexible way to elicit population preferences on complex choice tasks. We investigate whether we can improve citizens‘ survey experience, and ultimately choice quality, by diverging from the current standard of randomized conjoint attribute ordering. Such random ordering guarantees that any potential bias from attribute order cancels out on average. However, in situations with many attributes (> 4) this may unnecessarily increase cognitive demand for respondents, as attributes which belong together in terms of content are presented scattered across the choice table. Hence, we investigate experimentally whether purposeful ordering (where the researcher chooses a display order with „theoretically important“ dimensions first, i.e. dimensions (s)he wishes the respondent to process first) or block-randomized ordering (where the researcher displays attributes belonging to the same theoretical concept in randomized bundles) affects survey experience, response time and choice itself, as compared to a fully randomized ordering of attributes. Drawing on a complex conjoint choice design with nine attributes and 6,600 respondents (and hence sufficient power) from Germany and France we find that neither block-randomization, nor full randomization nor purposeful ordering affects self-reported survey experience, choice task timing or attribute weighting, not even systematically for high vs. low educated respondents where cognitive burden effects could most likely be expected. To our knowledge, we thereby provide the first systematic empirical evidence that ordering effects are likely of low relevance in conjoint choice experiments, and that the trade-off between cognitive burden and ordering effects is minimal from the perspective of respondents, at least for our substance matter.

Rudolph, L., M. Freitag, and P.W. Thurner (2023): “Deontological and Consequentialist Preferences Towards Arms Exports: A Comparative Conjoint Experiment in France and Germany“, European Journal of Political Research, forthcoming, 24p.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] [Blog Post] Abstract

Despite fierce politicization in arms-exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting transfers categorically) or consequentialist (trading-off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population-representative survey experiments (N=6617) in Germany and France, two global top-five major arms exporters, we find that 10–15 per cent of respondents follow deontologist considerations, a preference structure potentially relevant for all foreign policies involving the use of military force. Still, a majority shows differentiated preferences, giving largest weight to normative considerations, with assessments affected by moderating features (e.g., scenarios of just war). Principled rejection of arms trade and a large consequentialist weight for normative factors are more pronounced in Germany compared to France, indicating that public opinion might pose a stronger constraint for government policy in this country. Respondents‘ preferences match opinion polls on post-Russian invasion Ukraine armament, indicating high external validity of our experiments.

Presberger, D., F. Quoß, L. Rudolph, and T. Bernauer (2023): “Factual Information on the Environmental Impacts of Consumption Abroad Increases Citizens‘ Problem Awareness, but not Support for Mitigating Such Impacts“, Environmental Science & Policy, 146, 101-112.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] Abstract

Vastly increased international trade over the past few decades has resulted in an ever larger geographical spread in the environmental impacts of local consumption. Particularly in the case of high-income countries, a large share of their total environmental footprint of local consumption now materializes in places far beyond the respective national border. On the presumption that democratic policy-makers should, and often do, act in line with prevailing public opinion we examine whether currently weak policies addressing consumption-based environmental impacts abroad may reflect a gap in knowledge among citizens, and how closing this gap would affect policy preferences concerning the greening of international supply chains. We do so based on an experiment, embedded in a large representative survey (N = 8’000) in Switzerland, a high-income country with a very large extraterritorial environmental footprint. The main finding is that there is a major gap in knowledge among the mass public in this area, and that this gap can be closed. However, closing the information gap does not lead to a significant change in policy preferences in favor of reducing the global environmental footprint of local consumption. This points to major policy challenges in trying to mitigate problems of environmental impact shifting in the global economy.

Rudolph, L., D. Kolcava, and T. Bernauer (2023): “Public Demand for Extraterritorial Environmental and Social Public Goods Provision“, British Journal of Political Science, 53(2), 516-535.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] Abstract

Vastly increased transnational business activity in recent decades has been accompanied by controversy over how to cope with its social and environmental impacts. The most prominent policy response thus far consists of international guidelines. We investigate to what extent and why citizens in a high-income country are willing to restrain companies for the sake of improving environmental and social conditions in other countries. Exploiting a real-world referendum in Switzerland, we use choice and vignette experiments with a representative sample of voters (N=3010) to study public demand for such regulation. Our results show that citizens prefer strict and unilateral rules (with substantial variation of preferences by general social and environmental concern), while correctly assessing their consequences. Moreover, exposure to international norms increases demand for regulation. These findings highlight that democratic accountability can be a mechanism that motivates states to contribute to collective goods even if not in their economic interest, and that awareness of relevant international norms among citizens can enhance this mechanism.

Rudolph, L., F. Quoß, R. Buchs, and T. Bernauer (2022): “Environmental Concern Leads to Trade Scepticism for the Political Left and Right“, International Studies Quarterly, 66:5, sqac060.
[Link to Publisher Site] [Replication Material] Abstract

Evermore apparent environmental impacts of vastly increased international trade have been met both by public backlash against further trade liberalization and by efforts at greening international trade. Because public support is essential to environmental and trade policy-making alike, we examine the trade-environment nexus from a public opinion perspective. Our focus lies on whether negative attitudes towards trade are fueled by concern over its environmental consequences. We argue that environmental concern affects how citizens evaluate the costs and benefits of international trade, and that such evaluation is moderated by political ideology. The empirical analysis relies on a population-based survey experiment and a large representative survey in a small open economy, Switzerland. The results show that environmental concern (serenity) leads to decreasing (increasing) appreciation of and support for international trade. Political beliefs (ideology) moderate these effects, resulting in different manifestations of trade skepticism on the political right and left. Another interesting finding given the increasingly salient debate over environmental footprints of consumption and pollution havens is that we do not find evidence for the presumption that citizens care more about environmental damage at home than abroad when forming trade policy preferences. The main policy implication of our findings is that policy-makers should assign high priority to green global supply chains if they wish to sustain public support for liberal international trade policy.

Rudolph, L., T. Däubler, and J. Menzner (2022): “Offene Listen und die Wahl von Frauen zum Bundestag. Ergebnisse eines Survey-Experiments.“ Politische Vierteljahresschrift, 63, 441-468.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] [Media] [Media-Interview] [Fritz Thyssen Award] Abstract

Frauen sind im Bundestag unterrepräsentiert, insbesondere unter Parteien in und rechts der Mitte. Quotenregeln als vieldiskutierte Lösung greifen jedoch stark in die Freiheiten von Parteien, Kandidat*innen und Wähler*innen ein. Die Option offener Wahllisten hingegen findet wenig Aufmerksamkeit, obwohl sie verfassungsrechtliche Grundsatzprobleme vermeiden würde. Wir untersuchen daher, ob bzw. welche Wähler*innen in Deutschland auf offenen Listen für Frauen stimmen würden. Theoretisch erwarten wir, dass insbesondere Wählerinnen, Wähler*innen linker Parteien und Wähler*innen mit hoher Themensalienz bezüglich Geschlechtergerechtigkeit Präferenzen für Kandiatinnen ausdrücken würden. Dies könnte über alle Parteien hinweg den Anteil weiblicher Abgeordneten erhöhen. Unser Forschungsdesign basiert auf einem Online-Umfrageexperiment (N=2640) mit einer quotenrepräsentativen Stichprobe der deutschen Wahlbevölkerung. Befragte wählten zwischen Listen der im Bundestag vertretenen Parteien, mit je vier fiktiven Kandidat*innen. Der Frauenanteil auf jeder Liste variierte zufällig von 25-75%, ebenso ob Listen geschlossen oder offen präsentiert wurden. Wir zeigen, dass die Zusammensetzung von Parteilisten nach Geschlecht keinen Einfluss auf die Parteistimme in geschlossenen Listen hat. In offenen Listen lassen Wähler wie Wählerinnen das Kandidierendengeschlecht gemäß oben genannter theoretischer Erwartungen in ihre Wahlentscheidung einfließen. Allerdings gibt es auch Subgruppen, die sich bewusst für männliche Politiker entscheiden (Wähler der FDP, Wählerinnen der AfD). Hervorzuheben ist dabei — über Parteien hinweg — die Tendenz, dass Parteielektorate ungleiche Listenvorschläge der Selektorate ausbalancieren. Zudem würden Wähler*innen von Union und Linken, denen das Gleichstellungsthema wichtig ist, bei Bundestagswahlen offene gegenüber geschlossenen Listen bevorzugen.

Fesenfeld, L., L. Rudolph, and T. Bernauer (2022): “Policy Framing, Design and Feedback Can Increase Public Support for Costly Food Waste Regulation“, Nature Food, 3, 227-235.
[Link to Publisher Site] [Media-Interview] Abstract

About one-third of all food produced for human consumption worldwide is wasted, particularly in high-income countries. Reducing this waste is key to decreasing negative environmental impacts from the food sector and increasing food security in developing countries. Yet, achieving food waste reduction is challenging. It is widely presumed that efforts at stricter food waste regulation may increase food prices, and hence consumer and citizen opposition could render such ambitious regulation politically unfeasible. Here, we argue that appropriate policy framing, design, and feedbacks can ensure public support despite food price increases. Our empirical analysis uses survey experiments with a population-representative sample (N=3’329) from a typical high-income country, Switzerland. First, in a combined framing and conjoint experiment, we show that messages emphasizing national or international social norms in favor of reducing food waste (policy framing) can increase public support for more ambitious reduction targets. We also show that a majority of citizens support food waste regulation, even if this leads to substantial increases in food prices, but only if such policies set stringent reduction targets and are transparently monitored (policy design). Finally, in a vignette experiment, we show that voluntary industry initiatives do not crowd out individuals’ support for stricter governmental regulation, but potentially crowd-in support if industry initiatives are unambitious (policy feedback). Our research offers an analytical template for studying public support for food waste regulation and shows that there is more political room for adopting ambitious policies than hitherto presumed.

Bräuninger, T., T. Däubler, R. Huber, and L. Rudolph (2022): “How Open Lists Undermine the Electoral Support of Cohesive Parties“, British Journal of Political Science, 52:4, 1931-1943.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Appendix] [Replication Material] Abstract

How does ballot structure affect party choice? We argue that open lists undermine the electoral support of cohesive parties, to the benefit of internally divided parties. This effect is mainly due to indifferent voters close to the midpoint of the two parties‘ positions on a contested policy issue. We conduct a survey-embedded experiment in the aftermath of the European migrant crisis, presenting German voters real parties with fictitious politicians. A crossover design varies ballot type and exposure to candidate positions on immigration. We find that the internally divided CDU/CSU gains votes at the expense of the cohesive AfD when open lists are used and candidate positions are known. This effect is much stronger among participants indifferent between the AfD and any competitor. Overall, our analysis establishes conditions under which ballot structure can affect electoral performance of parties in general, and that of the populist right in particular.

Däubler, T., F. Quoß, and L. Rudolph (2021): “Do Citizens Use Sociodemographic Characteristics as Cues to Infer Candidate Issue Positions?“, Swiss Political Science Review, 27:4, 731-753.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Appendix] [Replication Material] Abstract

In open-list PR systems, choosing candidates based on issue proximity can improve policy congruence. However, in practice, voters may not know enough about individual candidates to do so. Hence, we examine whether individual positions can be inferred from cues provided on ballots, namely age and residence. Studying the Swiss parliamentary elections of 2019, we focus on environmental policy, both the most salient issue and featuring considerable intra-party heterogeneity of positions. We combine comprehensive candidate data with a representative voter survey and conduct a survey-embedded experiment (N=10758). We fi nd that citizens have indeed little knowledge of candidate positions.However, ballot cues predict policy differences among candidates within parties only to a limited extent, and the experiment does not suggest that voters use ballot information to predict positions directly. Instead, as suggested by additional analyses, citizens perceive candidates who resemble their own socio-demographic profile as having positions closer to their own.

Kolcava, D., L. Rudolph, and T. Bernauer (2021): “Citizen Preferences on Private-Public Co-Regulation in Environmental Governance: Evidence from Switzerland“, Global Environmental Change, 102226.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Appendix] [Replication Material] [Link to Study Pre-Registration] Abstract

Environmental policy is touching on ever more aspects of corporate and individual behavior, and there is much debate over what combinations of top-down (government-imposed) and bottom-up (voluntary private sector) measures to use. In democratic societies, citizens’ preferences over such combinations are crucial because they shape the political mandates based on which policymakers act. We argue that policy designs that involve private-public co-regulation receive more citizen support if they are based on inclusive decision-making, use strong transparency and monitoring mechanisms, and include a trigger for government intervention in case of ineffectiveness. Survey experiments in Switzerland (N = 1941) provide strong support for these arguments. Our research demonstrates that differences in co-regulation design have major implications for public support. Another key finding is that there seems to be a contradiction between inclusiveness and democratic accountability for policy outcomes. The findings are surprisingly consistent across two very different green economy issues we focus on empirically (decarbonization of finance, pesticides). This suggests that our study design offers a useful template for research that explores public opinion on green economy policy designs for other issues and in other countries.

Rudolph, L. and M. Wagner (2021): “Europe’s Migration Crisis: Local Contact and Out‐Group Hostility”, European Journal of Political Research, 61:1, 268-280.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] [Blogpost] Abstract

Does a large influx of asylum seekers in the local community lead to a backlash in public opinion towards foreign populations? We assess the effects of asylum seeker presence using original survey and macro‐level municipality data from Austria, exploiting exogeneous elements of the placement of asylum seekers on the municipality level. Methodologically, we draw on entropy balancing for causal identification. Our findings are threefold. First, respondents in municipalities receiving asylum seekers report substantially higher exposure on average, but largely without the stronger contact that would allow for meaningful interaction. Second, hostility towards asylum seekers on average increased in areas that housed them. Third, this backlash spilled over: general attitudes towards Muslims and immigrants are less favourable in contexts with local asylum seeker presence, while vote intention for the main anti‐immigration party is higher. Our findings go beyond existing work by examining contact directly as a mechanism, by showing a backlash effect in the medium term, and by focusing on a broad set of attitudinal and behavioural measures. Our results point to a need to design policy interventions that minimise citizen backlash against rapid migration inflows.

Rudolph, L. and A. Leininger (2021): “Coattails and Spillover-Effects: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Concurrent Executive and Legislative Elections”, Electoral Studies, 70, 102264.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] Abstract

Concurrent elections are widely used to increase turnout. We theorize and show empirically how concurrency affects electoral outcomes. First, concurrency increases turnout and thereby the participation of peripheral voters. Second, in combined elections, one electoral arena affects the other. In our case of majoritarian executive elections concurrent to PR legislative elections, the centripetal tendency of majoritarian elections colors off to the concurrent PR race. Third, concurrency also entails spill-overs of the incumbency advantage of executive officeholders to the con- current legislative race. Drawing on quasi-random variation in local election timing in Germany, we show that concurrency increases turnout as well as council votes for the incumbent mayor’s party and centrist parties more generally, with slightly more pronounced gains for the political left. As a consequence, concurrent elections consolidate party systems and political power by leading to less fragmented municipal councils and more unified local governments.

Kolcava, D., L. Rudolph, and T. Bernauer (2021): “Voluntary Business Initiatives Can Reduce Public Pressure for Regulating Firm Behaviour Abroad”, Journal of European Public Policy, 28:4, 591-614.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] [Media] Abstract

Almost all regulatory policy stops at the national border. Thus, when conducting business abroad, the behaviour of firms is regulated by their host, not their home country. Yet, international institutions have issued (non-binding) codes of conduct on social/environmental aspects of firm behaviour, and various high-income countries discuss how to improve extraterritorial firm behaviour – with high political contestation over the appropriate mix of state intervention and corporate self-regulation. Exploiting a unique national referendum on this issue in Switzerland, we investigate how these interact from a public opinion standpoint. Based on a nationally representative survey experiment (N=1564), we find that while baseline support for state intervention is high (approx. 60%), corporate self-regulation decreases such support. However, only credible voluntary business initiatives lead to substantial reductions. Our results speak to a broad policy debate in European countries and the EU on how to ensure compliance of firms with human rights and environmental standards.

Rudolph L. (2020): “Turning Out to Turn Down the EU: Mobilizing Occasional Voters and Brexit”, Journal of European Public Policy, 27:12, 1858-1878.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] Abstract

Large amounts of occasional voters participated in the Brexit referendum. How did this increase in turnout affect the outcome of the referendum? To thoroughly explore this question we exploit exogenous variation in voting costs on the local level. Large amounts of rainfall on election day made voting slightly more inconvenient in some areas of the UK. Using this rainfall in an instrumental variable approach, we can assess the voting behaviour of citizens whose benefits of voting just surpass costs under normal circumstances. We show that these voters predominantly supported Leave. Hence, the increase in turnout led to higher Leave support. Subsequently, we explore the likely reason for this observation with survey data. We find evidence that occasional voters were not more likely to support Leave in general, but that the mobilisation of Leave-leaning vs. Remain-leaning occasional voters was lopsided: Leave-leaning occasional voters were more likely to turn out. In a broader picture, our research highlights that the issue-specific mobilisation of low-propensity voters is important for explaining electoral outcomes. This is particularly so in referendums with weak partisan preferences, and where singular issues dominate voter decision making.

Däubler, T. and L. Rudolph (2020): “Cue-Taking, Satisficing, or Both? Quasi-experimental Evidence for Ballot Position Effects”, Political Behavior, 42, 625-652.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Replication Material] [Media] Abstract

Ballot position effects have been documented across a variety of political and electoral systems. In general, knowledge of the underlying mechanisms is limited. There is also little research on such effects in preferential-list PR systems, in which parties typically present ranked lists and thus signaling is important. This study addresses both gaps. Theoretically, we formalize four models of voter decision-making: pure appeal-based utility maximization, implying no position effects; rank-taking, where voters take cues from ballot position per se; satisficing, where choice is a function of appeal, but voters consider the options in the order of their appearance; and a hybrid “satisficing-with-rank-taking” variant. From these, we derive differential observable implications. Empirically, we exploit a quasi-experiment, created by the mixed-member electoral system that is used in the state of Bavaria, Germany. Particular electoral rules induce variation in both the observed rank and the set of competitors, and allow for estimating effects at all ranks. We find clear evidence for substantial position effects, which are strongest near the top, but discernible even for the 15th list position. In addition, a candidate’s vote increases when the average appeal of higher-placed (but not that of lower-placed) competitors is lower. Overall, the evidence is most compatible with the hybrid satisficing-with-rank-taking model. Ballot position thus affects both judgment and choice of candidates.

Leininger, A., L. Rudolph, and S. Zittlau (2018): “How to Increase Turnout in Low Salience Elections. Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effect of Simultaneous Second-Order Elections on Political Participation”, Political Science Research and Methods, 6:3, 509-526.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Appendix] [Replication Material] [Blogpost] Abstract

Voter turnout in second-order elections is on a dramatic decline in many modern democracies. This article investigates how electoral participation can be substantially increased by holding multiple of these less important elections simultaneously. Leading to a relative decrease in voting costs, concurrent elections theoretically have economies of scale to the individual voter and thus should see turnout levels larger than those obtained in any stand-alone election. Leveraging as-if-random variation of local election timing in Germany, we estimate the causal effect of concurrent mayoral elections on European election turnout at around 10 percentage points. Exploiting variation in treatment intensity, we show that the magnitude of the concurrency effect is contingent upon district size and the competitiveness of the local race.

Pamp, O., L. Rudolph, P. Thurner, A. Mehltretter, and S. Primus (2018): “The Build-up of Coercive Capacities: Arms Imports and the Outbreak of Violent Intrastate Conflicts”, Journal of Peace Research, 55:4, 430-444.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] Abstract

Do governments’ military build-ups foster the outbreak of intrastate violence? This article investigates the impact of governments’ arms imports on the onset of intrastate conflicts. There is scant empirical research on the role of the external acquisition of coercive technologies, and even fewer studies explore the respective causal mechanisms of their consequences. We argue that the existing literature has not adequately considered the potential simultaneity between conflict initiation and arms purchases. In contrast, our study explicitly takes into account that weapon inflows may not only causally induce conflicts but may themselves be caused by conflict anticipation. Following a review of applicable theoretical models to derive our empirical expectations, we offer two innovative approaches to surmount this serious endogeneity problem. First, we employ a simultaneous equations model that allows us to estimate the concurrent effects of both arms imports on conflict onsets and conflict onsets on imports. Second, we are the first to use an instrumental variable approach that uses the import of weapon types not suitable for intrastate conflict as instruments for weapon imports that are relevant for fighting in civil wars. Relying on arms transfer data provided by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute for the period 1949-2013, we provide estimates for the effect of imports on civil war onset. Our empirical results clearly show that while arms imports are not a genuine cause of intrastate conflicts, they significantly increase the probability of an onset in countries where conditions are notoriously conducive to conflict. In such situations, arms are not an effective deterrent but rather spark conflict escalation.

Rudolph, L. and P. Kuhn (2018): “Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany”, German Politics, 27:1, 1-24.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Appendix] [Replication Material] Abstract

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Consequently, natural disasters should reduce electoral participation. We show how these distinct views can be jointly analysed within the Riker–Ordeshook model of voting. This paper then reports results on the impact of the 2002 and 2013 floods in Germany on turnout in federal and state elections in Saxony and Bavaria, conducted few weeks after the floods. Analysing community level turnout data, and drawing on a difference-in-differences framework, we find that flood exposure has a consistent negative effect on turnout. This indicates that the increase in the costs of voting outweighed any increase in political engagement in our case and stands in contrast to findings from developing contexts, where flood management was convincingly linked to electoral participation.

Rudolph, L. and T. Däubler (2016): “Holding Individual Representatives Accountable: The Role of Electoral Systems”, Journal of Politics, 78:3, 746-762.
[Link to Publisher Site] [PDF] [Appendix] [Replication Material] [Media] Abstract

Voters are reluctant to sanction representatives for individual misconduct if they have to balance candidate-level and party-level factors in their choice, but this trade-off is affected by the electoral system. Our general theoretical model explains why individual accountability can empirically occur in single-member district (SMD) systems but is expected under less restrictive conditions using open-list proportional representation (OLPR). The latter not only decouples party and candidate choice but also makes seat allocation more vote elastic. For a thorough empirical test of our argument, we draw on real-world evidence from state-level elections in Bavaria, Germany, which are held under an unusual mixed-member system. Exploiting a recent public scandal involving one-third of representatives, we examine how electoral punishment of the same candidates by the same voters differs across electoral rules. Drawing on difference-in-differences as well as matching/regression estimators, we show that electoral punishment is substantially larger under OLPR than under SMD systems.

Book Chapters and Online Publications

Brugger, F., T. Bernauer, P. Burlando, L. Cabernard, I. Günther, S. Hellweg, D. Kolcava, L. Rudolph, D. Ruppen, C. Sui, A. Van der Merwe, S. Wehrli, and S. Pfister (2022): “Swiss Minerals Observatory – Synthesis Report and Policy Implications.”, ETH Zurich.
[Link to Website]

Quoß, F., L. Rudolph, S. Gomm, S. Kuang, P. Wäger, J. Bruker, C. Walder, S. Wehrli, and T. Bernauer (2021): „Schweizer Umweltpanel. Fünfte Erhebungswelle: 5G.“ [Swiss Environmental Panel – 5G], ETH Zurich.
[Link to Website] [PDF]

Quoß, F., L. Rudolph, S. Gomm, P. Wäger, J. Bruker, C. Walder, S. Wehrli, and T. Bernauer (2021): „Schweizer Umweltpanel. Vierte Erhebungswelle: Basisbefragung.“ [Swiss Environmental Panel – Wave 4], ETH Zurich.
[Link to Website] [PDF]

Rudolph, L., L. Fesenfeld, F. Quoß, L. Weil, P. Wäger, J. Bruker, C. Walder, S. Wehrli, and T. Bernauer (2020): “Schweizer Umweltpanel – Lebensmittelabfälle.” [Swiss Environmental Panel – Foodwaste], ETH Zurich.
[Link to Website] [PDF] [Media] [Media]

Rudolph, L., S. Wehrli, R. Buchs, G. Elsaid, P. Wäger, F. Quoß, K. Müller, and T. Bernauer (2020): “Schweizer Umweltpanel – Klima.” [Swiss Environmental Panel – Climate], ETH Zurich.
[Link to Website] [PDF]

Rudolph, L., S. Wehrli, G. Elsaid, M. Näf, P. Wäger, and T. Bernauer (2018): “Schweizer Umweltpanel – Leben und Umwelt in der Schweiz.” [Swiss Environmental Panel – Life and Environment in Switzerland], ETH Zurich.
[Link to Website] [PDF]

Rudolph, L. (2018): “Voting Behavior and Electoral Choice Using Causal Inference Methods for Observational Data.”, LMU Munich, Dissertation.
[Link to Dissertation]

Rudolph, L. (2017): “Die Münchner Ergebnisse im Bundes- und Landesvergleich: Ein Ude-Effekt in München?” [The Federal and State Elections 2013 in Munich: A Local Incumbency Advantage?], In: Klima, A., H. Küchenhoff, M. Selzer, and P. Thurner (eds.): “Exit Polls und Hybrid-Modelle. Ein neuer Ansatz zur Modellierung von Wählerwanderungen” [Exit Polls and Hybrid Models. A New Approach to Model Voter Transitions]. Springer: Wiesbaden.
[Link to Book] [PDF] [Appendix]

Thurner, P., A. Klima, and L. Rudolph (2017): “Wählerwanderung bei Landtags- und Bundestagswahl 2013.” [Voter Transitions at the Federal and State Elections 2013?], In: Klima, A., H. Küchenhoff, M. Selzer, and P. Thurner (eds.): “Exit Polls und Hybrid-Modelle. Ein neuer Ansatz zur Modellierung von Wählerwanderungen” [Exit Polls and Hybrid Models. A New Approach to Model Voter Transitions]. Springer: Wiesbaden.
[Link to Book]

Rudolph, L. (2013): “Federalism in South Asia and Beyond – An Introduction to Models, Best Practices and New Challenges“, in: Hegemer, C. and H. Bühler (eds.): „Federalism in Asia and Beyond – The Wildbad Kreuth Federalism Days 2012”, Hanns Seidel Foundation, Munich.

Rudolph, L. (2012): “Evaluation of Development Programs. Theory of Quantitative Impact Estimation and Its Application to an Asset-Based Approach to Poverty Alleviation”, University of Munich (LMU), Münchner Beiträge zur Politikwissenschaft: 23.
[Link to Thesis]

Behnke, J., J. Hintermaier, and L. Rudolph (2010): “Die Bedeutung von Werten für Verteilungsergebnisse im Ultimatum- und Diktatorspiel“ [The Relevance of Values for Distributions in Ultimatum and Dictator Games], in: Behnke, J., T. Bräuninger and S. Shikano (ed.): „Jahrbuch für Handlungs- und Entscheidungstheorie – Band 6”, VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften.
[Link to Chapter] [Chapter]

Magazine Articles (selected)

Rudolph, L. (2012): „Myanmar in Transition“, Diplomatic Magazine, Issue 9/2012.

Data for use by the scientific community

Quoß, F., L. Rudolph, S. Gomm, S. Wehrli, and T. Bernauer (2021): “Swiss Environmental Panel, Wave 1-6 (2018-2021)“, FORSbase Dataverse.
[Link to Data]

Rudolph, L., F. Quoß, S. Gomm, and T. Bernauer (2021). “Swiss Environmental Panel, Wave 1-3 (2018-2019)“, FORSbase Dataverse.
[Link to Data]

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